BCS Express analyst Mikhail Zeltser notes that now the ruble is in high demand amid the risks of settlements in the currencies of unfriendly countries, the tax period, expectations of dividend payments by exporters and a highly probable pause in the rate of the Bank of Russia. The sabotage at Nord Stream and the ongoing threat of sanctions did not affect the ruble, but the rise in oil futures and the rollback of the dollar on the world stage caused the strengthening of the Russian currency. In the coming days, the USD/RUB pair may technically slide down to the May lows for a while – just below 56 rubles/$1.
Zeltser also draws attention to the fact that the interest rate factor of the Central Bank usually affects the exchange rate of the national currency, and at the stage of monetary policy easing, as a rule, the national currency weakens.
“But the deflation-driven rate fell from 20% to 7.5%, and the ruble has not reacted. Now that deflation has disappeared and inflation expectations have strengthened, there is even a little less reason for the ruble to be weak. Still, until the end of the year We still expect a weaker ruble against the backdrop of a reduction in the surplus balance of exports and imports of the country,” he points out.