Reserve Bank of Australia forecast from WPAC, revised sharply higher.
- We have revised our profile for the RBA cash rate cycle to include 50bp moves in both August and September; followed by a step down in the pace to 25bp increases at every meeting from October to February 2023. The terminal cash rate forecast has been revised up from 2.6% to 3.35%. Under this policy stance economic growth is expected to slow to 1% in 2023 and the unemployment rate to lift from 3% to 4.4% in 2023. We expect the Bank to cut the cash rate by 100bps in 2024.
Separately, National Australia Bank has boosted their forecast to 2.85% by year-end